December 2024 – Muskoka Market Snapshot

Muskoka Property Market Shows Diverging Trends in 2024

The property market in Muskoka and Simcoe County took an intriguing turn in 2024, with waterfront homes and non-waterfront residential properties following distinctly different trajectories. As a waterfront sales specialist, I found the contrasting fortunes of these two segments to be the defining story of the year.

Diverging Markets

Residential non-waterfront sales totalled a healthy 6,610 units in 2024, but this was still down 9.4% from 2023 levels. December saw a late surge with a 26.1% year-on-year increase, but sales remained well below the 5 and 10-year averages for the month.

On the flipside, waterfront properties had a stellar year. 1,277 units were sold in total, a remarkable 23.4% increase from 2023. December alone saw a whopping 69.6% year-on-year increase. While still below historical December averages, this impressive rebound suggests the waterfront market found its footing far quicker than its non-waterfront counterpart.

Prices, Trends and Insights

For waterfront property buyers, the surge in sales suggests competition may be fiercer and bargains harder to come by as we enter 2025. However, the median price for December waterfront sales was down 22.4% year-on-year at $815,000, so deals are still to be had for savvy buyers. Those considering a waterfront purchase may want to act sooner rather than later.

Waterfront sellers have reason for optimism. The strong 2024 sales figures indicate robust demand, and with non-waterfront sales also now recovering, the supply/demand dynamics may start tilting in sellers’ favour. However, with the annual median waterfront price virtually flat at $974,000, sellers may need to keep their price expectations in check.

In the non-waterfront market, buyers may find more options and negotiating power, with sales still suppressed and prices off their highs. The December median price of $670,000 was up a modest 3.1% year-on-year, while the annual median dipped 3.6% to $675,000.

For non-waterfront sellers, patience may be key. While the market appears poised for a rebound, the current glut of inventory may limit near-term price appreciation. That said, the 27.3% year-on-year rise in December’s total dollar sales volume hints at a possible inflection point.

What to expect in 2025

As we navigate 2025, I expect the divergence between waterfront and non-waterfront sales to narrow. The waterfront market’s head start should give it momentum, but non-waterfront sales are poised to play catch-up.

The inventory overhang is gradually decreasing, and we could see more consistent price improvements once that supply thins out. If you’re a buyer, now is an ideal time to explore options. For sellers, well-priced properties with strong marketing strategies are already drawing attention.

Overall, the Muskoka and Simcoe County property market appears to be on a promising trajectory – but as always, local knowledge and specialist insight will be key to making the right moves in this dynamic landscape.

As a knowledgeable local broker, I’m here to help you navigate these changing conditions whether you’re dreaming of a cottage by the lake or a more traditional luxury home off water let’s talk about your goals and how to best position you in the market, feel free to get in touch for tailored advice, and guidance.