End of 2024 and looking ahead to 2025

Market Review: End of the Year

Jay Richardson’s insights for buyers and sellers.

As 2024 came to a close, the real estate market in Muskoka and Simcoe County revealed intriguing trends, providing opportunities and challenges for both buyers and sellers. Here’s a closer look at the numbers, along with tailored advice for making the most of this evolving market.

Residential Market Highlights

• Non-Waterfront Properties:
  December 2024 saw 309 non-waterfront residential sales, marking a 26.1% increase from December 2023. However, sales activity was still below the five-year and ten-year averages, signalling a slower overall market. On an annual scale, non-waterfront sales declined by 9.4% compared to 2023, reflecting a subdued year for this segment.
• Waterfront Properties:
  Waterfront sales, however, surged with 39 units sold in December—an impressive 69.6% jump from the previous year. For 2024 as a whole, waterfront activity rose by 23.4%, a welcome recovery to 2022 levels after a slower 2023.

What Do These Numbers Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

• Ample Inventory, Slow Price Growth:
  The current market offers a wide selection of properties. With inventory levels remaining high and prices stabilising, buyers can take their time to find the perfect fit without the pressure of rapidly rising costs. This is particularly true for waterfront properties, where prices saw only modest annual changes.
• Seasonal Opportunities:
  Waterfront properties began recovering early in 2024, suggesting an increasing demand in this segment. Buyers looking for cottages or luxury waterfront retreats may want to act before further recovery tightens competition in 2025.
• Diversified Options:
  If single-family homes feel out of reach, consider exploring townhouse or apartment options. Prices in these categories have shown slight declines, making them an attractive entry point for first-time buyers or those seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle.

For Sellers:

• Strategic Timing is Key:
  With the market in recovery mode, timing your listing will be crucial. Waterfront sellers may benefit from the increased buyer interest, especially as we head into the spring and summer seasons, which typically attract cottage buyers.
• Be Competitive:
  While demand is on the rise, buyers still have plenty of options. Work with a knowledgeable agent (like me!) to ensure your property is priced competitively and presented to highlight its unique features. Thoughtful staging and strategic marketing will be key to attracting serious offers.
• Consider Market Trends:
  If you own a non-waterfront home, you may need to be patient. Sales in this segment are picking up, but the pace is slower. Pricing your home appropriately and being open to negotiations can help you close the deal faster.

Price Trends: What to Know

• The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price rose to $698,000 in December 2024, up 3.9% year-over-year.
• Single-family homes saw a stronger 4.8% increase, reaching $727,000.
• In contrast, townhouses and apartments experienced slight price declines, making them budget-friendly options for buyers.
• For waterfront properties, the median price dropped significantly in December (down 22.4% year-over-year), but the annual median price of $974,000 remained stable. This indicates short-term fluctuations but a generally steady market over the year.

Looking Ahead in 2025

The real estate market is showing promising signs of recovery, particularly in the waterfront segment. With inventory still plentiful, buyers have the upper hand for now, but this could shift as demand continues to rise. Sellers, especially those in the waterfront category, should be prepared to capitalise on the upswing by presenting their properties at their best.

Navigating Uncertainty with Confidence

As we step into 2025, it’s impossible to ignore the broader uncertainties surrounding the global and U.S. economies. The election of Donald Trump has inevitably created a ripple effect, influencing buyer sentiment and market behaviour here in Canada. Canadians are feeling some apprehension about what may lie ahead, and this has made forecasting the year with precision more challenging.

That said, Muskoka waterfront properties continue to stand out as a strong, long-term investment. The desirability of this region, with its unmatched natural beauty, world-class amenities, and proximity to major urban centres, remains unparalleled. Muskoka real estate has historically weathered market fluctuations well, proving its value over time.

While it’s natural to feel cautious, it’s also important to remain optimistic. Real estate, particularly in desirable areas like Muskoka, is a tangible and enduring asset. For buyers, this could be a unique opportunity to secure your dream property at a time when the market is still stabilising. For sellers, it’s a moment to lean into strategic timing and thoughtful marketing to position your property competitively.

If you’re considering buying or selling this year, let’s connect. Together, we can navigate these uncertainties and create a plan that aligns with your goals. Muskoka waterfront remains a solid investment and a slice of paradise—no matter what the year may bring.