Muskoka Market Insights – June 2024

As we move into the summer season, real estate activity in Muskoka has shown some interesting trends, especially with new tax rules on the horizon. Let’s dive into the latest statistics and what they mean for buyers and sellers in our beautiful area.

Residential Non-Waterfront Sales

In June 2024, the Lakelands region saw 401 residential non-waterfront properties sold through the MLS® System, marking a significant decrease of 17.7% from June 2023. These sales were 28.8% below the five-year average and 33.9% below the ten-year average for this month.

Year-to-date, we’ve had 2,087 non-waterfront sales in the first six months of 2024, a moderate decline of 8.3% compared to the same period last year.

Waterfront Property Sales

Waterfront properties also experienced a dip in sales, with 130 units sold in June 2024, down 23.5% from June 2023. These sales were 37.1% below the five-year average and 39.2% below the ten-year average for June.

Interestingly, on a year-to-date basis, waterfront sales totaled 523 units in the first half of 2024, showing a slight increase of 0.6% from the same period in 2023.

Market Dynamics and Expectations

Despite expectations for a surge in sales due to anticipated changes in the capital gains inclusion rate, the market has remained relatively stable. “There was some uncertainty surrounding the expectation that sales in cottage country would see a sharp upswing in advance of the changes to the capital gains inclusion rate, but in the end, we didn’t see any material changes to demand,” said Bonnie Looby, President of the Lakelands Association of REALTORS®.

Both waterfront and non-waterfront property sales are trending below last year’s levels as summer begins. While sellers are active, the lack of a corresponding rise in buyer activity is leading to increased inventory. Sellers should work closely with their REALTOR® to set realistic expectations regarding pricing and market timing. For buyers, this environment offers opportunities to find great deals, making it crucial to have a knowledgeable REALTOR® to guide you.

Price Trends

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) is a more accurate measure of price trends than average or median prices. In June 2024, the overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $723,300, slightly down by 0.8% from June 2023.

The median price for residential non-waterfront property sales in June 2024 was $645,000, a decrease of 6.3% from June 2023. Year-to-date, the median price stands at $667,180, a modest decline of 2.6%.

For waterfront properties, the median sale price in June 2024 was $1,165,000, showing a significant increase of 28.1% from June 2023. Year-to-date, the median waterfront price is $970,000, up 2.1% from the first six months of last year.

Sales Value

The total dollar value of all residential non-waterfront sales in June 2024 was $297 million, a sharp decline of 23.4% from June 2023. For waterfront sales, the total value was $184 million, a substantial drop of 29.8% from the same month last year.

Guide for Buyers

Leverage Increased Inventory: With more properties on the market, buyers have the advantage of choice. Take your time to find a property that meets all your needs.
Work with a Local Expert:A knowledgeable local REALTOR® can provide invaluable insights and help you navigate the market to find the best deals.
Consider Future Value: Think about the long-term potential of the property, including possible capital gains and the property’s appeal in various market conditions.
Be Ready to Act: Good deals still move quickly, so be prepared with your financing and decision-making process to act when the right property comes along.

Guide for Sellers

Price Realistically: Consult with your REALTOR® to set a competitive and realistic price that reflects current market conditions.
Improve Curb Appeal: First impressions matter. Invest in minor renovations and staging to make your property more attractive to buyers.
Be Patient: With sales trending below previous years, it might take a bit longer to find the right buyer. Trust the process and your REALTOR®’s guidance.
Stay Flexible: Be open to negotiations and consider offers that might be below your asking price but still within a reasonable range.

In summary, the Muskoka real estate market is experiencing a period of adjustment. For sellers, it’s crucial to price properties realistically and be prepared for a longer time on the market. Buyers can take advantage of the increased inventory and potentially find great deals with the help of a skilled local Realtor.